A new study has projected that deaths from lung cancer in China could reach 760,000 annually by 2030, driven largely by population growth and the country’s rapidly aging population.
Lung cancer remains one of the leading causes of cancer-related deaths in China. Researchers said the overall number of deaths is likely to continue rising despite a decline in age-standardized mortality rates.
Chinese researchers analyzed nationwide mortality data covering cancer and other causes between 2013 and 2021. The study included data from 605 surveillance centers, representing about 2.37 billion person-years of observation.
Researchers used several statistical methods to examine changes in lung cancer mortality and identify factors contributing to the disease burden. A person-year is a unit used to measure the amount of time people are observed in a study.
Smoking continues to be a major risk factor for lung cancer in China. Data from 2018 showed that about 26.6% of adults smoked cigarettes, while many nonsmokers were also exposed to secondhand smoke.
Air pollution and the effects of industrial development may also contribute to the overall burden of lung cancer, researchers said.
The study highlighted an important trend: although lung cancer mortality rates adjusted for age are declining, the total number of deaths could still increase as China’s population grows and the proportion of older people rises.
Researchers said public health planning should therefore address both preventable risk factors, particularly smoking and exposure to air pollution, and the growing impact of an aging population.
They emphasized that reducing tobacco use and other risk factors, alongside preparing health systems for an increasingly elderly population, will be essential to tackling China’s future lung cancer burden.